The Republican Presidential Primary Race

A number of people have asked my opinion about the presidential race. Here's how I see things today.

It's weird for me to notice that I've actually met four of these candidates in person, Romney, Perry, Cain and Santorum. I like all the candidates, but I'm sorry to note that none of them are perfect. So I'm going to have to overlook something I don't like no matter who is nominated.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with his money and name ID, is clearly the one to beat. And that's the defining fact of the Romney campaign. He's been running for president for over four years now, he has a plan, and he's following it. He's gotten good at this. In fact, I fear that he may have become much better at running for president than we would be at actually serving as president. Romney has presented a 59-point policy plan that only a policy wonk could love, and my impression is that it's a solid, moderate, bi-partisan, traditional Republican plan to slow the rate of acceleration towards the cliff that we're currently barreling towards. Frankly, despite what he says today, I don't trust Romney to keep his promises.

Texas Governor Rick Perry got a great deal of attention when he joined the race in August, but has since lost a great deal of his early momentum. Still, he had a great fundraising quarter, so he's got the cash to enable him to keep at this for a while. Perry has a great record as Governor of Texas, but has performed badly in debates. Perry and his staff haven't so far shown that they understand that a presidential election is different than a Texas gubernatorial election. But he's made some recent staff changes, and today come out with a very solid-looking economic plan with a centerpiece of an optional flat tax. Perry needs to explain how he helped Texas become such a great place to live, and how as president he'll make America a great place to live again, too. So far, he hasn't done that. Too, he lost ground early with many conservatives, especially those concerned with illegal immigration, and pro-lifers because of that Gardasil issue. Can he recover his lost momentum? Time will tell. Perry is still on of my top three candidates.

Former Senator Rick Santorum was one of my top three, but his recent debate performances, his poll performances, and some of his commentary, has really begun to get to me. Santorum is a good guy, and he has the virtue of being right on the issues. But he presents himself and his issues poorly. Santorum, in my mind, is beginning to shape up to be like a white Alan Keyes. Right on the issues, but not able to present them in a fashion that can be accepted by people who don't already share his position. Santorum has recently seen a brief bounce in his poll numbers, but it was a very small one, and didn't last. I believe it's time for Santorum to fold his tent.

Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, to my mind, has done a great job in Congress. But I don't believe that she's shown herself to be ready to be president, either. Again, she's right on most issues, but seems to have a hard time explaining herself to people (like those in the media) who don't already share her views. Despite winning the Ames Straw Poll in August, Bachmann has been losing steam ever since. While I think it's good that she mounted this campaign, I'd like to see her terminate her presidential campaign and run for re-election to Congress.

Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China John Huntsman, in my view, never had any business running for president as a Republican. I don't believe he's raised much money, nor ever gotten much support. I think it's long past time for Huntsman to abandon this race.

I recently told people on Facebook that I thought it was time for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to quit, too. Newt, I've felt, would do better as a debate moderator than a participant. But Newt, who has more issues over the last 20 years, both personal and political, than I care to get into here, is enjoying a small bounce bringing up to third place in some polls. But unless he can turn that into a big move, I don't believe he should keep at this.

Congressman Ron Paul has a lot of good ideas, too, and seems to be running a much better campaign this year than last. I have big qualms about some of his ideas, like ending the bulk of our overseas military involvement. I can't help but think that there would be unintended consequences which we might find intolerable. But there's a lot to like about Paul, as well. Last time around, Ron Paul was my fourth choice, after Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, and Fred Thompson, none of whom were still in the race by the Illinois primary in early February, so I voted for Paul. If Perry and Cain don't stay in until the Texas primary in March, I may vote for Paul again, as he's currently in my top three.

Finally, businessman Herman Cain is currently riding a very remarkable groundswell of support in the polls, supported by his excellent debate performances. Cain has had some recent missteps, but seems to be getting good at explaining himself. Too be sure, a campaign is an educational experience, for the candidate no less than for the electorate. And this is the drawback Cain has, insufficient experience in politics. I don't say none, because Cain ran a primary race for the U.S. Senate a few years back. But Cain clearly has a lot to learn if he's going to finish this race. Still, with his cheery mien, and his excellent 9-9-9 plan, I think he's got a lot to offer; Cain is my first choice at the moment. But that could change, I'm still learning about all these candidates.